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2008 Senate · NJ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 777 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 34%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.95%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 34 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.030 − 41.954 = 14.076
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.076) = -0.076
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.076| = 0.076

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16468, race ID 1567 (538 database).