2008 Senate · LA
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 436 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 39%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.11% · Republican 45.72%
D+6.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 52.110 − 45.723 = 6.387
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (6.387) = 6.614
- Absolute miss = |6.614| = 6.614
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16467, race ID 1557 (538 database).