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2008 President · ID

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 372 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 59%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.09% · Republican 61.52%

R+25.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 59 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.091 − 61.517 = -25.426
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-25.426) = 2.426
  4. Absolute miss = |2.426| = 2.426

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16462, race ID 717 (538 database).