Skip to content

2008 President · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 704 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 37%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.59% · Republican 38.22%

D+22.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 37 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.589 − 38.221 = 22.368
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (22.368) = -1.367
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.367| = 1.367

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16461, race ID 710 (538 database).