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2008 President · KS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 52%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.65% · Republican 56.61%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.652 − 56.612 = -14.960
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-14.960) = 3.960
  4. Absolute miss = |3.960| = 3.960

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16453, race ID 720 (538 database).