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2008 Senate · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 616 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 53%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.03% · Republican 52.97%

R+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 53 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.034 − 52.966 = -5.932
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-5.932) = -2.069
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.069| = 2.069

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16447, race ID 1556 (538 database).