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2008 President · VA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 672 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.63% · Republican 46.33%

D+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.629 − 46.331 = 6.298
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (6.298) = -2.299
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.299| = 2.299

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16445, race ID 749 (538 database).