2008 Senate · ME
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 57%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.58% · Republican 61.33%
R+22.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 57 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 38.583 − 61.331 = -22.748
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-22.748) = 6.748
- Absolute miss = |6.748| = 6.748
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16443, race ID 1558 (538 database).