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2008 President · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.99% · Republican 52.20%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.990 − 52.205 = -5.215
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.215) = -1.786
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.786| = 1.786

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16438, race ID 714 (538 database).