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2008 Governor · MO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,343 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57.9% · Republican 38.4%

D+19.5

The certified result

Democrat 58.40% · Republican 39.49%

D+18.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57.9 − 38.4 = 19.50
  2. Actual margin = 58.400 − 39.488 = 18.912
  3. Signed miss = 19.50 − (18.912) = 0.588
  4. Absolute miss = |0.588| = 0.588

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16424, race ID 1315 (538 database).