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2008 Governor · NC

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,100 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.27% · Republican 46.88%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.275 − 46.877 = 3.398
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (3.398) = -2.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.397| = 2.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16423, race ID 1323 (538 database).