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2008 President · MT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,734 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.25% · Republican 49.51%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.250 − 49.513 = -2.263
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.263) = 3.263
  4. Absolute miss = |3.263| = 3.263

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16416, race ID 730 (538 database).