2008 House · MT-1
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,734 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 60%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.42% · Republican 64.14%
R+31.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 60 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 32.425 − 64.144 = -31.719
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-31.719) = 6.720
- Absolute miss = |6.720| = 6.720
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16416, race ID 4260 (538 database).