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2008 Governor · MT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,734 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 36%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.47% · Republican 32.52%

D+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 36 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.471 − 32.516 = 32.955
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (32.955) = -6.955
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.955| = 6.955

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16416, race ID 1316 (538 database).