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2008 President · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2008-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.319) = -4.318
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.318| = 4.318

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16415, race ID 742 (538 database).