2008 President · FL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 691 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.818) = 0.182
- Absolute miss = |0.182| = 0.182
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16405, race ID 713 (538 database).