2008 President · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 678 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 48%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.818) = -1.818
- Absolute miss = |-1.818| = 1.818
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16402, race ID 713 (538 database).