Skip to content

2008 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 850 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.2% · Republican 41.6%

D+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.2 − 41.6 = 3.60
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 3.60 − (7.400) = -3.800
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.800| = 3.800

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15616, race ID 38 (538 database).