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2008 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 970 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 43.8%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 43.8 = 4.40
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 4.40 − (7.400) = -3.000
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.000| = 3.000

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15610, race ID 38 (538 database).