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2004 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 1,284 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 48.6%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 48.6 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (-2.443) = -0.856
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.856| = 0.856

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15573, race ID 39 (538 database).