2008 President · national
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.400) = -0.400
- Absolute miss = |-0.400| = 0.400
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15164, race ID 38 (538 database).