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2008 President · national

Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 936 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.400) = 1.600
  4. Absolute miss = |1.600| = 1.600

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15059, race ID 38 (538 database).