2004 President · national
GQR · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%
R+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-2.443) = 4.444
- Absolute miss = |4.444| = 4.444
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15016, race ID 39 (538 database).