2008 President · national
CBS News · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.400) = 1.600
- Absolute miss = |1.600| = 1.600
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 14954, race ID 38 (538 database).