2008 President · national
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.400) = -2.400
- Absolute miss = |-2.400| = 2.400
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 14936, race ID 38 (538 database).