Skip to content

2010 Governor · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,308 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 44%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 45.03%

D+7.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.640 − 45.033 = 7.607
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.607) = 1.394
  4. Absolute miss = |1.394| = 1.394

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 1075, race ID 1288 (538 database).