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2010 Senate · NV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 682 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.29% · Republican 44.55%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.289 − 44.547 = 5.742
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.742) = -6.742
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.742| = 6.742

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 1065, race ID 1528 (538 database).