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2010 Governor · NV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 682 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 55%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.61% · Republican 53.36%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 55 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.613 − 53.361 = -11.748
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-11.748) = 0.748
  4. Absolute miss = |0.748| = 0.748

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 1065, race ID 1297 (538 database).