Skip to content

2024 Senate results

In 2024 the final polling averages missed the result by 4.39 points on average across 118 races, and leaned 3.23 points toward the Democrats.

Colour shows how each race came out (538's results files). Compare with the final polls.

Alabama: no race this yearAlaska: no race this yearArizona: polls D+4.5 ±1.5 · 21 pollsters; result D+2.4 · Ruben Gallego (D) wonColorado: no race this yearFlorida: polls R+6.4 ±1.9 · 14 pollsters; result R+12.8 · Rick Scott (R) wonGeorgia: no race this yearIndiana: polls R+14.8 ±9.7 · 1 pollster; result R+19.9 · Jim Banks (R) wonKansas: no race this yearMaine: polls not a D-vs-R race · 2 pollsters; result not a D-vs-R race · Angus S. King Jr. (I) wonMassachusetts: polls D+21.5 ±3.8 · 4 pollsters; result D+19.8 · Elizabeth Ann Warren (D) wonMinnesota: polls D+11.7 ±3.3 · 5 pollsters; result D+15.7 · Amy Klobuchar (D) wonNew Jersey: polls D+17.5 ±3.9 · 4 pollsters; result D+9.6 · Andy Kim (D) wonNorth Carolina: no race this yearNorth Dakota: not polled; result R+32.9 · Kevin Cramer (R) wonOklahoma: no race this yearPennsylvania: polls D+1.6 ±1.4 · 22 pollsters; result R+0.2 · Dave McCormick (R) wonSouth Dakota: no race this yearTexas: polls R+4.8 ±2.2 · 9 pollsters; result R+8.5 · Ted Cruz (R) wonWyoming: polls R+47.5 ±7.0 · 1 pollster; result R+51.0 · John Barrasso (R) wonConnecticut: not polled; result D+18.9 · Christopher S. Murphy (D) wonMissouri: polls R+11.8 ±4.3 · 4 pollsters; result R+13.7 · Josh Hawley (R) wonWest Virginia: not polled; result R+41.0 · Jim Justice (R) wonIllinois: no race this yearNew Mexico: polls D+6.8 ±4.9 · 2 pollsters; result D+10.1 · Martin Heinrich (D) wonArkansas: no race this yearCalifornia: special: polls D+20.4 ±4.6 · 2 pollsters; result D+17.5 · Adam B. Schiff (D) won; polls D+21.9 ±2.9 · 6 pollsters; result D+17.7 · Adam B. Schiff (D) wonDelaware: not polled; result D+17.1 · Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) wonDistrict of Columbia: no race this yearHawaii: not polled; result D+32.7 · Mazie K. Hirono (D) wonIowa: no race this yearKentucky: no race this yearMaryland: polls D+12.2 ±3.1 · 7 pollsters; result D+11.8 · Angela Alsobrooks (D) wonMichigan: polls D+2.6 ±1.3 · 28 pollsters; result D+0.3 · Elissa Slotkin (D) wonMississippi: not polled; result R+25.6 · Roger F. Wicker (R) wonMontana: polls R+7.8 ±3.8 · 3 pollsters; result R+7.1 · Tim Sheehy (R) wonNew Hampshire: no race this yearNew York: polls D+23.3 ±3.4 · 5 pollsters; result D+18.3 · Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) wonOhio: polls R+1.9 ±2.1 · 10 pollsters; result R+3.6 · Bernie Moreno (R) wonOregon: no race this yearTennessee: polls R+21.6 ±9.6 · 1 pollster; result R+29.6 · Marsha Blackburn (R) wonUtah: polls R+34.7 ±4.3 · 2 pollsters; result R+30.8 · John Curtis (R) wonVirginia: polls D+8.4 ±2.8 · 7 pollsters; result D+8.9 · Timothy Michael Kaine (D) wonWashington: polls D+14.5 ±5.9 · 2 pollsters; result D+18.4 · Maria Cantwell (D) wonWisconsin: polls D+1.1 ±1.5 · 23 pollsters; result D+0.8 · Tammy Baldwin (D) wonNebraska: polls not a D-vs-R race · 4 pollsters; result R+6.7 · Deb Fischer (R) won; special: polls R+24.1 ±5.4 · 1 pollster; result R+25.2 · Pete Ricketts (R) wonSouth Carolina: no race this yearIdaho: no race this yearNevada: polls D+4.5 ±1.9 · 15 pollsters; result D+1.6 · Jacky S. Rosen (D) wonVermont: polls not a D-vs-R race · 1 pollsters; result not a D-vs-R race · Bernie Sanders (I) wonLouisiana: no race this yearRhode Island: polls D+11.1 ±7.1 · 1 pollster; result D+20.1 · Sheldon Whitehouse (D) won
  • D won by 10+
  • D won, under 10
  • Tied
  • R won, under 10
  • R won by 10+
  • Independent or other contest

Sources: Polls: ABC News / 538 poll pages, archived 2025-03-06; Results: ABC News / 538 election-results files (fivethirtyeight/election-results).